Tag: Probabilistic Reasoning

Another chance for good reasoning

Published in: Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, Volume 24, Issue 6, December 2017, 1995-2002 Abstract “Disagreement on the “probability status” of chances casts doubt on Girotto and Gonzalez’s (2001) conclusion that the human mind can make sound Bayesian inferences involving single-event probabilities. The main objection raised has been that chances are de facto natural frequencies disguised as probabilities. In the present study, we empirically demonstrated that numbers of chances are perceived as being distinct from natural frequencies and that they have a facilitatory effect on Bayesian inference tasks that is completely independent from their (minor) frequentist readings. Overall, therefore, our results strongly… Read More